The value enigma – false dawn or resurgence?
This year has not quite followed the script: investors were expecting improving economic growth and rising inflation to be accompanied by steeper yield curves, with the more defensive/quality stocks and so-called ‘bond proxies’ coming under pressure as bond yields rose. The strong rebound in value in H2 2016 was heralded… Read the article
Bitcoin: bubble or beginning? Both!
There is no denying that the recent cryptocurrency boom resembles the one we saw among dotcom companies in the late 1990s. Celebrities then were taking equity stakes in start-ups in exchange for promoting them, and we are seeing a similar trend today.
In the late 1990s, over… Read the article
Earlier this year, data from the UK’s Continuous Mortality Investigation Mortality Projections Committee showed that life expectancy improvements have slowed dramatically. Initially thought to be a blip in the data, there is increasing evidence, both in the UK and in other developed countries, that this is a structural change in… Read the article
Last October, my colleague Tom Dobell wrote about the absurdity of how companies are forced to treat their long-term pension liabilities.
After another couple of reporting periods characterised by falling discount rates, I wanted to lay out in a slightly more mathematical fashion why I think Tom… Read the article
In this month’s update Ritu Vohora, Investment Director looks at what is driving the momentum in… Watch the video
Like the ghost in Charles Dickens’s “A Christmas Carol,” recent price action in Japanese equity markets has been an unwelcome echo of the past. Outperformance of stocks with more stable earnings streams has resembled the market dynamics that provided a headwind to value investors in the decade after the financial… Read the article
Is the era of cheap money coming to an end? In this month’s update Ritu Vohora, Investment Director, reviews central banks increasingly hawkish… Watch the video
Scary stats abound around the ageing population and many column inches have been dedicated to the burden this will place on the health service and the pension system. But older workers could prove to be the saviour of the workforce.
Andy Briggs, the government’s business champion for older workers, said… Read the article
Are political surprises and uncertainty now the new normal? It could appear that way after yesterday’s general election resulted in a hung parliament after the ‘dead cert’ Conservative majority predicted just seven weeks ago. The Conservatives have emerged as the largest party and are seeking to form a minority government… Read the article
Global Q1 2017 earnings delivery was the best quarter in over six years. In this month’s update Ritu Vohora, Investment Director, reviews the earnings outlook for the rest of the… Read the article
US withdrawal from Paris Accord puts technology at the forefront of the climate challenge
As expected, and as promised during his campaign, US president Donald Trump yesterday announced that the US will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, the 2015 agreement setting greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for individual countries. One of the major achievements of the agreement was the near universality of… Read the article
As the General Election approaches, politicians on all sides will no doubt claim to be the best custodians of the UK economy. Brexit might be front of mind for many voters, but economic competence has always been a key vote winner – and loser. So for investors, what can history… Read the article
The election of Moon Jae-in as Korea’s new president is, we think, good news for shareholders in Korean companies, as we expect President Moon to drive further improvements in corporate governance standards leading to better returns for shareholders and ultimately higher share prices.
For… Read the article
The active-versus-passive debate is once again back in the limelight with the news this week of low-cost passive provider Vanguard’s launch of new website for personal investors. This simply adds fuel to the flames: figures from EPFR suggest that in the past 12 months, passive equity funds have… Read the article
For centuries, the parable of “The Blind Men and the Elephant”* has been used to illustrate how overemphasising a specific part of a complex situation can lead to the wrong conclusion, even if that part is indeed both real and important.
The same is true in the world… Read the article
M&A activity has begun 2017 on a positive note after falling in 2016. In this month’s update Ritu Vohora, Investment Director, considers whether the current level of activity is… Read the article
The UK stockmarket as a whole has performed very well over the last twelve months, despite the obvious disruption from the Brexit vote last June. A glance at the various indices shows that investors have paid particular attention to smaller companies – indeed it seems that the mantra has been… Read the article
Markets have reacted positively to Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen going forward to the second round of the French presidential election on 7 May. Polls on the second round now show establishment figure, Macron, ahead of Le Pen by more than 10 percentage points. There’s an overwhelming likelihood of… Read the article
Stock exchanges have been at the forefront in the news recently not least following the recent failure of the proposed merger between the London Stock Exchange and Germany’s Deutsche Bourse. As in other areas of finance there is increasing focus on the need for greater transparency for investors… Read the article
Politics is important, but no-one knows what the outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be. In this month’s update Ritu Vohora, Investment Director, looks at what the facts are currently telling us about the UK economy and… Read the article
Fund managers naturally consider a range of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues in their investment decisions – much like they have always taken non-financial factors such as corporate culture, geopolitics and regulation into account when considering investments. So ESG is not a new concept… but in recent years it… Read the article
What do Google and Facebook have in common with the recently listed Snap? Lofty valuations? Check. Internet companies? Of course. But perhaps less well known is their apparent apathy towards minority shareholders. Snap has the dubious honour of being the first ever US company to IPO shares that… Read the article
Global equities continued to rally in February driven by an improvement in both economic data and earnings expectations. In this month’s update, Ritu Vohora, Investment Director, looks at the prospect for earnings growth in… Watch the video
While 8 November 2016 will be mostly remembered for the surprise election of Donald Trump as US president, another momentous event was taking place in India at the same time. Narenda Modi, the country’s prime minister, announced the withdrawal of every Rs500 ($7.5) and Rs1000 ($15) banknote nationwide… Read the article
You’d have got good odds on a horse positively influencing South Korean corporate governance, something that now appears increasingly likely.
You may have read about the scandal under which a number of South Korea’s family-dominated conglomerates (‘chaebols’) are alleged to have made material contributions to Choi Soon-sil, a close friend… Read the article
Global equities started 2017 in a buoyant mood and in this month’s update, Ritu Vohora Investment Director, looks at sustainability of the equities rally. Is this just the result of the so-called ‘Trump boost’ or do the fundamentals suggest a different… Watch the video
When I blogged on this topic in February last year, I sounded a note of caution that 2016 was unlikely to be plain sailing for income investors. In the event, despite an uncertain start, income-seeking investors experienced another good year. Companies paid out £84.8 billion in ordinary dividends,… Read the article
A few months ago my colleague, Sam Ford, explored the magic of compounding in his excellent blog: The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race. In this post, I’d like to flip his ‘Power of Compounding’ on its head and explore ‘The Dangers of Discounting’.
The most conventional approach… Read the article
Stock correlations are now at their lowest level since the GFC in 2008, prompting a seismic change in the investor landscape and a more favourable, less constrained market backdrop for stock pickers. Until last year, there were long periods of high correlation – challenging for both active managers and anyone… Read the article
In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, UK interest rates and bond yields fell to their lowest levels since records began in 1694! This was mirrored by global yields and appeared to trigger a sea-change in monetary policy guidance and inflation expectations. Is this the end of the 35-year ‘bond… Read the article
Whether it’s Brexit, Trump, OPEC or the celebrity death-toll, it feels like we have lurched from one drama to the next in 2016. Stock markets have taken all this excitement and chosen to run with it – the FTSE 100, for example, looks set to end the year close to… Read the article
Amid all the hysteria about the potential headwinds that the election of Donald Trump as US president will create for emerging markets, I remain resolutely optimistic about their prospects. Up to the election on 8 November, emerging markets had undergone a remarkable recovery from a low point in January –… Read the article
Thanks to all of you who took part in the Equities Forum ‘Twelve Charts of Christmas’ Quiz.
The top prize for correctly guessing what all twelve charts showed goes to Sam Corbet of Ravenscroft, Guernsey. A Cross Bailey Black Lacquer Fountain Pen will soon be on its way to you.
… Read the article
We are publishing three charts from 2016 every day from Monday to Thursday this week with the legends and other key information missing. Each chart comes with a clue to help you identify what is being shown.
The closing date for entries is midday on Friday 16th December.
Please email… Read the article
Here is day 3 of the Equities Forum’s first ‘Twelve Charts of Christmas’ Quiz.
We are publishing three charts from 2016 every day from Monday to Thursday this week with the legends and other key information missing. Each chart comes with a clue to help you identify what is being… Read the article
Here is day 2 of the Equities Forum’s first ‘Twelve Charts of Christmas’ Quiz.
We are publishing three charts from 2016 every day from Monday to Thursday this week with the legends and other key information missing. Each chart comes with a clue to help you identify what is being… Read the article
Here is the Equities Forum’s first ‘Twelve Charts of Christmas’ Quiz. We’ll be publishing three charts from 2016 each day between now and Thursday with the legends and other key information missing. Each chart comes with a clue or a multiple choice answer to help you identify what is being… Read the article
Yesterday’s announcement by OPEC (The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) on cutting oil supply marks a significant change in strategy and effectively provides a back-stop for the oil & gas industry. OPEC said that it will reduce oil supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) with a… Read the article
After a number of false starts, could it be that the much heralded ‘great rotation’ from bonds to equities has finally arrived? Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has accelerated a trend that began in July soon after the Brexit vote in the UK, with bond yields rising, the… Read the article
In yesterday’s blog, I discussed that while the Bitcoin currency system may not see widespread adoption, it gave us a unique piece of technology that would – Blockchain. At its heart, the Blockchain technology eliminates the need of a third party for verifying transactions. This is accomplished through… Read the article
A fistful of bitcoins . . .
There’s been a lot of attention on bitcoins and blockchains recently, in particular the latter which is being heralded as a major disrupter in financial services. In a two part series this week, I will attempt to explain and demystify the concepts of bitcoins and blockchains and look at the… Read the article
Thoughts ahead of the OPEC meeting
As OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) meets on 30 November to decide on production cuts, much uncertainty remains regarding OPEC’s collective appetite to reduce production, how the reduction will be apportioned and the likely timing of the mooted cuts.
We should not take OPEC’s actions lightly though as the… Read the article
Urban sprawl chokes cities. That was a key takeaway for me from a responsible investment conference I attended earlier this year. If we want to help reduce carbon emissions we need the cities we build today to be compact, connected and co-ordinated. The greater the area of a city the… Read the article
Cents and Sensibility – implications of Trump presidency for the healthcare sector
Don’t let the initial market enthusiasm to Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election detract from the longer-term themes investors in the healthcare sector need to consider and the limited visibility we have over how the Republicans will approach US healthcare policy.
The reaction in healthcare to the outcome of… Read the article
With Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the race to the White House, populist sentiment and anti-establishment feelings are making their presence felt at the ballot box.
Investment Director, Ritu Vohora provides an update on the market’s reaction to the US election… Watch the video
Low-volatility strategies are supposed to insulate investors from market bouts of turbulence. But lately, that’s been flipped on its head, as the strategies have underperformed and fund flows are retreating.
In the latest in our regular video series on the equities markets, Investment Director, Ritu Vohora provides an update on… Watch the video
Price is what you pay, value is what you get . . .
Guest contributor – Jean-Paul Jaegers, CFA, CQF (Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)
… however, what is often less debated is the impact that time can have on these variables.
This is relevant as investors’ holding periods have generally shortened and as a result the variables that influence the… Read the article
Small-cap ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’
Most investors are aware that the post-referendum UK equity market rally has not treated all stocks or sectors equally. Since 23 June, for example, the mining sector is up (+38.6%) to date, while retail stocks are down (-8.4%).
In the small-cap space, much of the recent focus post-Brexit has been… Read the article
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OKWelcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.
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